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Friday, December 12, 2008

Post-Mumbai, India has few choices

Am out of Bangalore, too! Or almost.
But more on that later.
I have been watching the aftermath of the Mumbai terror attacks with a sense of deja vu. Remember the Parliament attack? The same sense of inability to do anything really concrete still haunts the Indian political establishment. The only difference is that it is the Congress, and not the BJP, that is in power now at the Centre.
The choices, or lack of thereof, facing India in the aftermath of the terror attacks in Mumbai are worrisome. The fact is, despite all the hard talk, the government of the country can do precious little to force the Pakistani army and the rogue elements in its intelligence establishment to desist from supporting Islamic terrorists fighting India.
Indian leaders and military chiefs can talk about hot pursuit, but if India really tries that in Kashmir it would be risking a nuclear war in the sub-continent. The US can do that in the Pakistani tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, but if India tries the same trick it is bound to invite a swift and strong military response from Pakistan.
The fact is, a nuclear-armed Pakistan has made it safer for the terror elements operating from that country to strike with impunity at India.
All the talk about cutting trade and cultural links with Pakistan is not going to solve the problem. Pakistan has survived Indian embargoes earlier, too. Besides, forcing Pakistan into an economic crisis will only strengthen the hands of the jihadists and no country in the world, let alone India, would want them to have access to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.

What is the solution? Try the same tack that Pakistan has used with great success against India – foster insurgencies in that country taking advantage of the many ethnic fault lines that fan across its landscape.
The recent explosion of protests from Pakistan against a map that was doing the rounds in the United States, showing present-day Pakistan divided between India, Afghanistan and an independent Baluchistan shows how much Pakistan’s ruling elite fears such an outcome is possible.
India needs to reply in the same coin to what Pakistan has been orchestrating against this country. The question here is can the weak-kneed politicians with their eyes on vote banks conceptualise and execute such a strategy?
It doesn’t sound easy, but if ever there is a time for India to launch such an operation, it is now. And the community of nations, having seen the damage a rogue Pakistan can do, would be only too willing to help!

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